Robert Pore's Ag Blog

In a recent report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 71 percent between 2003 and 2030.

A large part of that growth will come in developing countries, such as China and India, as economies grow and energy use increases.

But not only will energy use increase, so will the cost of that energy. Growth increases demand, but also pressures supplying that demand.

The dilemma is not so much will we have enough energy to meet growing demand. It’s the mean of production and infrastructure to deliver that energy that’s the pressing problem.

It’s inconceivable to think that human kind will ever run out of energy sources to drive its ever growing expansion of technology. The problem is that nearly the whole infrastructure of that energy demand is driven by fossil fuel.

According to the EIA report, higher prices dampen expected growth in world oil demand. As a result, oil’s share of total energy use is projected to fall from 38 percent in 2003 to 33 percent in 2030. But that opens the door to the growth of other fossil fuels, such as natural gas and coal.

The report said petroleum consumption is still expected to grow strongly, however, reaching 118 million barrels per day in 2030. The United States, China, and India together account for 51 percent of the projected growth in world oil use.

The report said that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to increase their supply of oil by 14.6 million barrels per day between 2003 and 2030. Higher oil prices contribute to a substantial increase in projected non-OPEC supply, which rises by 23.7 million barrels per day, including 8.1 million barrels per day of unconventional production, over the same period.

World unconventional production (including oil sands, bitumen, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) increases by 9.7 million barrels per day between 2003 and 2030, representing 25 percent of the total world liquids supply increase.

The world’s energy woes are more easy to cure by rhetoric than they are in actually accomplishing the task. The key is diversifying the energy mix to lot greater extent than what’s happening currently.

The biggest problem is making those alternative energy sources economically viable on a large scale. Technology will deliver the solution of economy of scale to make alternative fuels economically viable. But, will those who have a huge vested interest in the fossil fuel industry be willing to relinquished their share of the pie?

That’s not going to be a easy task considering that building this huge fossil fuel dependency and world wide infrastructure has been accomplished, in reality, just in a little more than 100 years. The growth of technology has allowed human kind to harness energy’s abundant availability in very efficient manner.

If technology has fostered a global fossil fuel infrastructure since the dawning of the Industrial Age, the technology’s transformation of a more diverse energy sourced market can be accomplished a lot faster that any of us can imagine if the incentives are right.

But the real concern shouldn’t be oil consumption as it is water consumption. What will be a more pressing issue, especially as it is finally dawning on everybody that global warming is a serious reality, is providing water to a growing population and a growing world economy.

Just as much as fossil fuel drives economic advancement, so does water. For example, a lot of water is needed for energy production, such as ethanol. And just as we need energy to grow food, we also need a lot of water.

Here is an interesting perspective to think about: Each day America uses 882,000,000 million gallons of oil for various energy uses. A barrel of oil contains 42 gallons of crude or which about half is used to make gasoline.

While Nebraska irrigation season runs about three months out of the year, based on 2000 numbers from the U.S. Geological Survey over a 12 month period, 8.8 billion gallons of water is used daily with more than 90 percent of it going to grow crops, primarily corn and soybeans.

Nationwide, the U.S. uses 137 billion gallons water daily. Comparing oil use to water use is like comparing apples to orange, but both still are fruits to having a vibrant economy.

If fossil fuels run out, we can replace it easy enough with a host of other alternative energy sources. But if we run short of water for a growing world population, that’s a different matter altogether.