Robert Pore's Ag Blog

With fears that one in four of the world's plant species could already be on the brink of extinction from the effects of global climate change ­ and as many as half of the planet's estimated 400,000 plant species facing a similarly bleak future ­ a group of leading plant scientists have called for a global action plan to tackle the impending crisis.

"While the impact of climate change on iconic animal species, such as polar bears, is well recognised," says Sara Oldfield, Secretary General of Botanic Gardens Conservation International (BGCI), which is co-ordinating the initiative, "the threat that global warming poses to plant diversity is often overlooked and this could have serious consequences for the future of the planet."

According to BGCI, the terrifying implications of plant extinctions for the future of humankind and the wellbeing of the planet simply cannot be underestimated, the
scientists believe and time, they argue, is running out.

A recent study of four of the world's most important food crops, rice, potato, peanut and cowpea, predicts that climate change over the next fifty years will have a devastating impact on their wild relatives, which harbour the genetic diversity that may enable cultivated crops to adapt to changing climatic
conditions. By 2055, says the research, up to a quarter of all potato, peanut and cowpea species could become extinct and over 50 per cent of the land area currently suitable for their cultivation could be gone.

"Maintaining the genetic diversity that exists among the wild plant population is absolutely essential if we are to have any chance of mitigating the effects of climate change," says Emile Frison, Director General of the International Plant Genetic Resources Institute (IPGRI), a co-signatory of the declaration. "And this is not just a plant problem, but a human one too. Plants are key to human survival, not just for food, but medicines and many other essential materials."
And as environments change faster than plant species can migrate, scientists estimate that in less than 80 years up to half of Europe's plant species could be under threat and a massive 60 percent of mountain species may have vanished.

"We have to step up to the challenge now, at every level, if we are to make a difference," warns BGCI's Sara Oldfield. "The impact of global climate change on plants and habitats is already being felt and unless we do something about it urgently, the implications for all life on earth are bound to be severe."

Scientists using NASA satellite data have found that clearing for mechanized cropland has recently become a significant force in Brazilian Amazon deforestation. This change in land use may alter the region's climate and the land's ability to absorb carbon dioxide.

A study published online in the September 14, 2006 edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences examined cropland expansion in Mato Grosso, the Brazilian state with the highest deforestation and soybean production rates. Using data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites and information from field observations, researchers found that in 2003, the peak year of deforestation, more than 20 percent of the state's forests were converted to cropland. This finding suggests that the recent cropland expansion in the region is contributing to further deforestation.

The high resolution and daily frequency of MODIS images allows researchers to distinguish vegetation types in greater detail than other satellites. This capability has helped the scientists to see for the first time that the size of the clearings used for crops has averaged twice the size of clearings used for pasture. Land conversion has also occurred rapidly, with about 90 percent of new crops planted within a year of deforestation.

"Deforestation for cropland usually involves clearing several square kilometers of land and results in greater separation of remnant patches of forest than other types of land use," said study lead author Douglas Morton, University of Maryland, College Park, Md. "MODIS data is especially helpful in monitoring these changes because its two daytime observations provide much better data than other satellites over typically cloudy regions like the Amazon basin to help distinguish different land cover types."

In addition to mapping the change in land use type over Mato Grosso between 2001 and 2004, the researchers compared these changes with shifts in agricultural prices in the region. The study found a strong correlation between the amount of land deforested and the average annual soybean price. As soybean prices rose in 2003, the conversion from forest to cropland increased, while the amount of land converted to pasture declined.

"In 2005, soybean prices fell by more than 25 percent and some areas of Mato Grosso showed a decrease in large deforestation events, although the central agricultural zone continued to clear forests," said Morton. "But, deforestation rates could return to the high levels seen in 2003 as soybean and other crop prices begin to rebound in international markets." Brazil has become a leading worldwide producer of grains including soybean, accounting for more than one-third of the country's gross national product. This new driver of forest loss suggests that the rise and fall of prices for other crops, beef and timber may also have a significant impact on future land use in the region, according to the study.

Converting forests to cropland also has a more pronounced ecological and climate impact than other land conversions because it involves the complete removal of land biomass, including tree trunks, stumps and woody roots. "The carbon once contained in the living material and soil is released into the air from multiple fires during the clearing process, causing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, a primary greenhouse gas, to increase," said co-author Ruth DeFries, University of Maryland. Of all land uses and types, croplands are also one of the least efficient at absorbing carbon from the air.

In a related study, to be published in Earth Interactions, researchers found that the region's climate is impacted not only by the overall extent of clearing, but also by the type of subsequent land use. Changes in land cover and use directly influence climate by affecting the amount of solar energy absorbed at the surface, the transfer and flow of heat, and the transport of water from the land and plants through evaporation, a cooling process.

Using a computer climate model driven by MODIS data, the researchers examined the sensitivities of climate to recent changes in Mato Grosso. Model results indicate that areas converted from tropical forest to cropland, including soybean, result in warmer, drier conditions. But the conversion of forest into pasture -- land with grasses -- results in a cooling effect.

Tropical forests generally keep temperatures cooler because they transpire water through their leaves and roots. As a result, forests can maintain the regional climate more readily than croplands, even during the dry season.

"We found areas deforested and left with bare ground had the most profound impact on climate, raising temperatures up to 3 degrees Fahrenheit," said study co-author Lahouari Bounoua, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. "Forests replaced with croplands had the second most significant climate impact, followed next by pastures."

These findings suggest that recent land conversions of the Amazon forest may have measurable effects on the regional climate.

It is important for scientists to understand climate change in the region because the tropics receive two-thirds of the world's rainfall. When it rains, water changes from liquid to vapor and back again, storing and releasing heat in the process. With so much rainfall, a large amount of heat is released into the atmosphere -- fueling large-scale atmospheric circulations that transport heat and influence weather patterns both regionally and globally.

Deforestation remains Brazil's largest source of carbon dioxide emissions. These studies identify the evolution of individual land clearings over time to help grasp the fate of land use following deforestation. "This research provides the information needed for programs to reduce deforestation, projections of future deforestation, and efforts to identify priority areas for conservation," said Morton.

Both research studies were supported by the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in the Amazon, an international research effort led by the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology and sponsored by NASA's Terrestrial Ecology and Land Use-Land Cover Change Programs. The project aims to understand how Amazonia functions as a regional entity within the larger Earth system, and how changes in land use and climate will affect the biological, physical, and chemical functioning of the region's ecosystem.

Adelaide, Australia – Over a third of the world’s electricity – including that required by industry – can realistically be supplied by wind energy by the middle of the century, according to a new report released by the Global Wind Energy Council and Greenpeace.

The ‘Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006’ report, provides an industry blueprint revealing how wind power could supply 34 percent of the world’s electricity by 2050. It also concludes that if wind turbine capacity were implemented on this scale, it would prevent 113 billion tons of global warming gases from entering the atmosphere by 2050.

“This report shows that if we are serious about addressing the issue and urgency of global warming, wind energy will be the largest source of electricity by mid-century,” said Kate Smolski, Greenpeace global warming campaigner. “To achieve these large goals we will need both on and offshore wind and this is why Greenpeace has been such a strong advocate for the wind project proposed on Cape Cod.”

The ‘Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006’ runs three different scenarios for wind power: a reference scenario based on figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA); a moderate version which assumes that current targets for renewable energy are successful, and an advanced version assuming that all policy options in favor of renewables have been adopted.

These are then set against two scenarios for global energy demand. Under the reference scenario, growth in demand is again based on

IEA projections; under the high energy efficiency version, a range of energy efficiency measures result in a substantial reduction in demand (2). Wind power has experienced major growth in OECD countries, especially the United States and Europe, with significant growth in developing countries such as China and India (3).

“Wind energy is the most attractive solution to the world’s energy challenges. It is clean and fuel-free. Moreover, wind is indigenous and enough wind blows across the globe to cope with the ever increasing electricity demand. This report demonstrates that wind technology is not a dream for the future – it is real, it is mature and it can be deployed on a large scale,” said Arthouros Zervos, GWEC’s Chairman. “The political choices of the coming years will determine the world’s environmental and economic situation for many decades to come.”

The global market for wind power has been expanding faster than any other source of renewable energy. From just 4,800 MW in 1995 the world total has multiplied more than twelve-fold to reach over 59,000 MW by the end of 2005. The international market is expected to have an annual turnover in 2006 of more than $16 billion, with an estimated 150,000 people employed around the world (4). The success of the industry has attracted investors from the mainstream finance and traditional energy sectors.

National Farmers Union President Tom Buis said Smithfield Foods announcement this week that it is purchasing number two producer Premium Standard Farms perpetuates the consolidation and concentration of the meat industry in the United States.

Buis said approval of merging the number one and number two pork producers all but guarantees independent producers will be left without a market.

“National Farmers Union has been steadfast in its call for the federal government to start playing an active role to ensure fair, open, transparent, accessible and competitive markets for all agricultural commodities," he said. "The current lack of enforcement of anti-trust laws has failed America’s food producers and consumers."

He said Smithfield Foods is the number one pork processor and producer in the United States. Premium Standard Farms is the second largest producer, with 225,000 sows. With the announcement today, Smithfield Foods will attain over one million sows, far exceeding any competitor.

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) is calling on the U.S. Department of Justice to thoroughly review Smithfield’s plan to merge with Premium Standard Farms.

Specifically, Harkin said that DOJ should look into whether or not the merger would violate anti-trust laws and what impact the merger would have on pork producers, consumers and hog and pork markets.

Harkin is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee.

“The merger agreement announced today involves a very substantial change in the structure, vertical integration and degree of consolidation in the U.S. pork industry,” said Harkin. “It obviously will have significant impacts on both independent hog producers and those who raise hogs under contract.”

Completion of this merger would increase market consolidation in hog production and processing, potentially hurting the market’s competitiveness.

Harkin said this merger would give Smithfield control of 20 percent of U.S. hog production and 31 percent of pork processing.

Economists have already stated that when four firms control over 40 percent of a sector, in this case hog slaughter, market competitiveness will decline. Currently, the top four firms in the United States control roughly 50 percent of hog production and over 64 percent of hog processing.

“This merger once again points to the need for federal limits on packer ownership and captive supplies of livestock,” Harkin said. “This deal also underscores the critical need for full and effective enforcement of the Packers and Stockyards Act and for additional federal protections for independent pork producers and those producing under contracts.”

In February, Harkin introduced the “Competitive and Fair Agricultural Markets Act of 2006," which includes contract protections for independent producers. The bill would ensure a producer has at least three days to review or cancel a production contract after signing it.

The legislation would also protect producers from having contracts prematurely terminated if they have made a sizable capital investment. Harkin said the bill ensures that producers are not prevented from going to the courts to challenge unfair actions in contract arrangements.

Harkin is also an original co-sponsor of legislation that makes it unlawful for a packer to own, feed, or control livestock intended for slaughter.